Phase 2 Study of ABT-869 in Combination With mFOLFOX6 Versus Bevacizumab in Combination With mFOLFOX6 to Treat Advanced Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hascancermetastatictherapysubject must
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofopen labeldayrandomized
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6614 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Sequential and Concurrent FOLFOXIRI/Bevacizumab Regimens Versus FOLFOX/Bevacizumab in First-Line Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01765582 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• A Study of ABT-165 Plus FOLFIRI vs Bevacizumab Plus FOLFIRI in Subjects With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Previously Treated With Fluoropyrimidine, Oxaliplatin and Bevacizumab NCT03368859 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• A Comparison of mXELIRI Regimen and FOLFIRI Combined Bevacizumab Regimen as First-line Chemotherapy Regimen for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04247984 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Comparing Efficacy and Safety of Stivant (AryoGen Bevacizumab) Versus Avastin in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT03288987 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• BIBF 1120 Versus Bevacizumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00904839 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.