A Long-Term Study of the Effects of Orally Administered SAR302503 in Patients With Myelofibrosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (1,462 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: long termthe longcompletedadministeredchronic
  Phrases that lowered it: patients within patientsto evaluateevaluate themf
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 111 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 147 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose-escalation Study of the Safety and Tolerability of Orally Administered TG101348 in Patients With Myelofibrosis NCT00631462 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study in Japanese Patients With Intermediate-2 or High Risk Primary Myelofibrosis, Post-Polycythemia Vera Myelofibrosis, Post-Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis With Splenomegaly NCT01692366 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Phase 1/2 Study of Oral SB1518 in Subjects With Chronic Idiopathic Myelofibrosis NCT00745550 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Phase II, Open Label, Single Arm Study of SAR302503 In Myelofibrosis Patients Previously Treated With Ruxolitinib NCT01523171 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Long-term Safety and Efficacy of Momelotinib in Subjects With Primary Myelofibrosis, Post-polycythemia Vera Myelofibrosis, Post-essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis, Polycythemia Vera or Essential Thrombocythemia NCT02124746 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.