Aldesleukin With or Without Vaccine Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage IV Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: melanomatumorstagesubjectcardiac
  Phrases that lowered it: topicalvaccinetypediseaseshepatic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 66.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 27 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Study of Allo LMI Vaccine With IL-2 for Stable Metastatic Breast Ca NCT00784524 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• High-Dose Aldesleukin and Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Stage III-IV Melanoma That Cannot Be Removed By Surgery NCT02203604 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• Vaccine Combining Multiple Class I Peptides and Montanide ISA 51VG With Escalating Doses of Anti-PD-1 Antibody Nivolumab or Ipilimumab With Nivolumab For Patients With Resected Stages IIIC/ IV Melanoma NCT01176474 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Multiple Class I Peptides & Montanide ISA 51 VG w Escalating Doses of Anti-PD-1 ab BMS936558 NCT01176461 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Melanoma Treatment With White Blood Cells That Destroy MART Expressing Tumor Cells NCT01495572 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.