Efficacy And Safety Of PF-00885706 For The Relief Of Symptoms In Subjects With Gastro-esophageal Reflux Disease (GERD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2008-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 244 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pfsubjectsrandomized doubledouble blindpersistent
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacysafety ofdiseasesgroup
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Selective 5-HT4 Receptor Agonist and Proton Pump Inhibitor (PPI) in Subjects With Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) NCT01472939 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Investigate the Effect of Different Doses of Lesogaberan (AZD3355) as add-on to PPI in GERD Patients With Partial Response to PPI NCT01005251 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• ADX10059 as an add-on Therapy to Proton Pump Inhibitors (PPIs) in Patients With Gastroesophageal Reflux (GERD) NCT00810485 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Validation of Patient-reported Outcomes Measures for the Assessment of Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) Symptoms NCT00703534 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• An Explorative Trial to Evaluate the Pharmacodynamic Effect of SPD557 on Reflux Parameters in Refractory GERD Patients NCT01370863 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.