An Explorative Trial to Evaluate the Pharmacodynamic Effect of SPD557 on Reflux Parameters in Refractory GERD Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-05-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stableplacebothe purposepurpose oftrial
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectseffectand safetyevaluateinvestigate the
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 46 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Selective 5-HT4 Receptor Agonist and Proton Pump Inhibitor (PPI) in Subjects With Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) NCT01472939 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study to Estimate Effect of 4 Different Doses of AZD3355 on Reflux Episodes, Which Patients With Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) May Experience NCT01043185 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Efficacy And Safety Of PF-00885706 For The Relief Of Symptoms In Subjects With Gastro-esophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) NCT00730665 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
• Trial of IW-3718 for 8 Weeks in Patients With Persistent Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) Receiving Proton Pump Inhibitors (PPIs) NCT03561883 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Trial of IW-3718 for 8 Weeks in Patients With Persistent Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) Receiving Proton Pump Inhibitors (PPIs) NCT03561090 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.