Selective 5-HT4 Receptor Agonist and Proton Pump Inhibitor (PPI) in Subjects With Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-05-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects within subjectstherapypriorreceptor
  Phrases that lowered it: heartburnppigerdevaluateeffect of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 55 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy And Safety Of PF-00885706 For The Relief Of Symptoms In Subjects With Gastro-esophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) NCT00730665 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
• An Explorative Trial to Evaluate the Pharmacodynamic Effect of SPD557 on Reflux Parameters in Refractory GERD Patients NCT01370863 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Dexlansoprazole Modified Release Formulation to Treat Night Heartburn NCT00627016 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Comparing the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Rabeprazole ER 50 mg With Placebo in Subjects With Symptomatic Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (sGERD) NCT00911534 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Rabeprazole Extended-Release 50 mg Versus Esomeprazole 40 mg for Healing and Symptomatic Relief of Moderate to Severe Erosive Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) NCT00658528 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.