Conditioning Regimen and the Transplantation of Unrelated Donor Umbilical Cord Blood in Patients With Hematologic Malignancies.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellradiationtransplantdonortherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: lymphomapatientsnhlrelapsedcll
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 86 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 202 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 12278 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Donor Umbilical Cord Blood Transplant After Fludarabine Phosphate, Cyclophosphamide, and Total-Body Irradiation in Treating Patients With High-Risk Hematologic Cancer NCT00963872 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT) Using CD34 Selected Mismatched Related Donor and One Umbilical Cord Unit NCT01050946 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
• UCB Transplant for Hematological Diseases Using a Non Myeloablative Prep NCT02722668 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Umbilical Cord Blood Transplant With Added Sugar and Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Leukemia or Lymphoma NCT03096782 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Tocilizumab for the Prevention of Graft Versus Host Disease After Cord Blood Transplantation NCT03434730 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.