Erlotinib Hydrochloride in Treating Participants With Muscle Invasive or Recurrent Urothelial Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 29% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-11-26, after 2008-06-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellmricarcinomapaincancer
Phrases that lowered it: participantspatientsmassaminotransferaseupper -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 193 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 146 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 19 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 146 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 21.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 193 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 473 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 184 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 98.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 28.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erlotinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Chemotherapy Before Surgery in Treating Patients With High Grade Upper Urinary Tract Cancer NCT02412670 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Stage I Bladder Cancer NCT00981656 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- A Study of Enfortumab Vedotin Alone or With Other Therapies for Treatment of Urothelial Cancer NCT03288545 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
- Sacituzumab Govitecan Before Radical Cystectomy for the Treatment of Non-Urothelial Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT05581589 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
- Nivolumab and RT in Treating Patients With Localized/Locally Advanced Urothelial Bladder Cancer Ineligible for Chemo NCT03421652 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.