Nivolumab and RT in Treating Patients With Localized/Locally Advanced Urothelial Bladder Cancer Ineligible for Chemo

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasradiationthe subjectheartfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicalto evaluateantibodiestrialhypersensitivity
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9744 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 78 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• BLASST-1 (Bladder Cancer Signal Seeking Trial): Nivolumab, Gemcitabine, and Cisplatin in Treatment of Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (MIBC) Undergoing Cystectomy NCT03294304 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Phase Ib Feasibility Trial of Neoadjuvant Nivolumab/Lirilumab in Cisplatin-Ineligible Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT03532451 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of TAR-200 and Nivolumab in Subjects With Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT03518320 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
• Pembrolizumab With Chemoradiotherapy as Treatment for Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT02662062 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage II or Stage III Bladder Cancer That Was Removed by Surgery NCT00777491 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.