Safety and Tolerability of TAR-200 and Nivolumab in Subjects With Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withheartriskfailuresubject
  Phrases that lowered it: participantshcvhepatitis virusscreeningbladder
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14721 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 56499 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial of Anti-PD-1 (Nivolumab) in Bladder Cancer Patients Recently Treated With Intravesical BCG Immunotherapy NCT03106610 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Tolerability of GemRIS 225 mg in Subjects With Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT02722538 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine, Cisplatin, Plus Nivolumab in Patients With Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer With Selective Bladder Sparing NCT03558087 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• BLASST-1 (Bladder Cancer Signal Seeking Trial): Nivolumab, Gemcitabine, and Cisplatin in Treatment of Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (MIBC) Undergoing Cystectomy NCT03294304 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab and RT in Treating Patients With Localized/Locally Advanced Urothelial Bladder Cancer Ineligible for Chemo NCT03421652 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.