Treatment of Multiple System Atrophy Using Intravenous Immunoglobulins

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: intravenouslossthe investigatorpresenceas determined
  Phrases that lowered it: cellsparticipate into participatesymptomaticby blocking
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 16 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Inosine 5'-Monophosphate to Raise of Serum Uric Acid Level in Patients With Multiple System Atrophy: a Multi-center, Randomized Controlled, Double Blind, Parallel Assigned Clinical Trial NCT03403309 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• Lithium in Multiple System Atrophy NCT00997672 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• A Study of TAK-341 in Treatment of Multiple System Atrophy NCT05526391 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• Study of ATH434 in Participants with Multiple System Atrophy NCT05109091 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Trial of Autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Patients With Multiple System Atrophy NCT00911365 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.