Inosine 5'-Monophosphate to Raise of Serum Uric Acid Level in Patients With Multiple System Atrophy: a Multi-center, Randomized Controlled, Double Blind, Parallel Assigned Clinical Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-06-10, after 2018-05-02 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectsmultiplesubjectstrokeatrophy
Phrases that lowered it: patients withto investigateinvestigate theacidclinical -
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 419 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 19 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 419 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 123 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 57 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 10 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 91.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 15.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- inosine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of ATH434 in Participants with Multiple System Atrophy NCT05109091 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Multiple System Atrophy Using Intravenous Immunoglobulins NCT00750867 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Lithium in Multiple System Atrophy NCT00997672 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
- A Study of TAK-341 in Treatment of Multiple System Atrophy NCT05526391 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- A Biomarker Study of ATH434 in Participants With MSA NCT05864365 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.