Erlotinib Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Stage I-III Colorectal Cancer or Adenoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumorstagebowelof childrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsritonavirplasmato participatetopical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 249 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 244 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Erlotinib Hydrochloride in Reducing Duodenal Polyp Burden in Patients With Familial Adenomatous Polyposis at Risk of Developing Colon Cancer NCT02961374 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Skin Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT01198028 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• FOLFIRI and Panitumumab in Treating Patients With RAS and BRAF Wild-Type Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02508077 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Erlotinib Hydrochloride and Onalespib Lactate in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic EGFR-Mutant Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02535338 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Phase II Trial of Erlotinib, Prior to Surgery or Radiation in Patients With Squamous Cell Cancers (SCC) of the Skin NCT01059305 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.