A Study of Dalotuzumab (MK-0646) in Breast Cancer Patients (MK-0646-013)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-02-17, after 2008-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-02-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancertumorchemotherapygraderadiation
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsstudy toto evaluateevaluate the -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 280 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 435 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 435 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 280 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dalotuzumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- The Growth Factor Signature (GFS) as an Intermediate Biomarker of Response for Development of PI3K-Pathway Inhibitors in Patients With Breast Cancer (MK-8669-050) NCT01220570 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- A Study of Ridaforolimus (MK-8669) in Combination With Dalotuzumab (MK-0646) Compared to Standard of Care Treatment in Estrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancer Patients (MK-8669-041 AM3) NCT01234857 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
- A Study of Abemaciclib (LY2835219) Plus Hormone Therapy in Participants With Early Breast Cancer NCT04752332 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
- DS-8201a in Pre-treated HER2 Breast Cancer That Cannot be Surgically Removed or Has Spread [DESTINY-Breast02] NCT03523585 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- T-DM1 vs Paclitaxel/Trastuzumab for Breast (ATEMPT Trial) NCT01853748 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.