A Study of Ridaforolimus (MK-8669) in Combination With Dalotuzumab (MK-0646) Compared to Standard of Care Treatment in Estrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancer Patients (MK-8669-041 AM3)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-10-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 715 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancersurvivalpatientfreedetermine
  Phrases that lowered it: participantbreast cancerestrogenreceivedreceptor positive
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1980 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Trial of Ridaforolimus and Exemestane, Compared to Ridaforolimus, Dalotuzumab and Exemestane in Participants With Breast Cancer (MK-8669-064) NCT01605396 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Oral Deforolimus With Trastuzumab for Patients With HER2-positive Trastuzumab-Refractory Metastatic Breast Cancer (8669-009) NCT00736970 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• The Growth Factor Signature (GFS) as an Intermediate Biomarker of Response for Development of PI3K-Pathway Inhibitors in Patients With Breast Cancer (MK-8669-050) NCT01220570 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Study of Dalotuzumab (MK-0646) in Breast Cancer Patients (MK-0646-013) NCT00759785 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Study of Dalotuzumab + MK-2206, Dalotuzumab + MK-0752, and Dalotuzumab + Ridaforolimus Combination Therapies in Participants With Advanced Cancer (MK-0646-027) NCT01243762 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.