A Phase II Trial of Ridaforolimus and Exemestane, Compared to Ridaforolimus, Dalotuzumab and Exemestane in Participants With Breast Cancer (MK-8669-064)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancermetastaticbrainlocallyadvanced
  Phrases that lowered it: participantshealthyevaluate theto evaluatehepatitis
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 149 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 894 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Ridaforolimus (MK-8669) in Combination With Dalotuzumab (MK-0646) Compared to Standard of Care Treatment in Estrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancer Patients (MK-8669-041 AM3) NCT01234857 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Everolimus in Combination With Exemestane in the Treatment of Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Are Refractory to Letrozole or Anastrozole NCT00863655 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of RAD001 (Everolimus) in Combination With Letrozole in the Treatment of Postmenopausal Women With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01231659 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Oral Deforolimus With Trastuzumab for Patients With HER2-positive Trastuzumab-Refractory Metastatic Breast Cancer (8669-009) NCT00736970 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Trial of Exemestane +/- MM-121 in Postmenopausal Women With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Estrogen Receptor Positive and/or Progesterone Receptor Positive Her2 Negative Breast Cancer NCT01151046 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.