First-line Therapy of Stage IV Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bevacizumabcancercolorectalbleedingmetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: mgmonthdiseasespatientstumors
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase III Study of 2nd-line XELIRI ± Bevacizumab vs. FOLFIRI ± Bevacizumab in mCRC NCT01996306 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Irinotecan, Capecitabine and Bevacizumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients NCT00875771 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Clinical Study of FOLFOXIRI With Bevacizumab As First-line Therapy in Patients With mCRC NCT02246049 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Irinotecan, Capecitabine and Avastin for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer as Salvage Treatment NCT00717990 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Maintenance Bevacizumab Only or Bevacizumab Plus Metronomic Chemotherapy in Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT02271464 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.