A Study With Neoadjuvant mFOLFOX7 Plus Cetuximab to Determine the Surgical Conversion Rate for Unresectable Colorectal Cancer With Metastases Confined to the Liver

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 26% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreater thancarcinomametastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateaimsafetypatients
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 14 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 28501 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 13 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• FOLFOXIRI With or Without Cetuximab as First-line Treatment of Patients With Non-resectable Liver - Only Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02063529 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Study of Perioperative Chemotherapy Plus Panitumumab in Patients With Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases NCT01260415 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• FOLFOXIRI With or Without Bevacizumab as First-line Treatment for Unresectable Liver-only Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients With RAS Mutation-type NCT02350530 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Chemotherapies Associated With Targeted Therapies on the Resection Rate of Hepatic Metastases NCT01442935 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Improving SUrgery of Liver Metastases: a Trial of the Arterial Chemotherapy Network NCT03164655 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.