Study of Aflibercept And Modified FOLFOX6 As First-Line Treatment In Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticsurvivalcolonprogression
  Phrases that lowered it: the studysafetyrandomizedefficacycomparative
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 375 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 190 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Aflibercept in Combination With FOLFIRI in Patients With Second-Line Metastatic Colorectal Cancer in Japan NCT01882868 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare the Efficacy of Arfolitixorin Versus Leucovorin in Combination With 5 Fluorouracil, Oxaliplatin, and Bevacizumab in Patients With Advanced Colorectal Cancer NCT03750786 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Study of Aflibercept Versus Placebo With FOLFIRI in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Previously Treated With an Oxaliplatin Chemotherapy NCT01661270 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Study of Intravenous Aflibercept in Combination With FOLFIRI in Japanese Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00921661 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• OPTIMOX-aflibercept as First-line Therapy in Patients With Unresectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01802684 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.