Study of Intravenous Aflibercept in Combination With FOLFIRI in Japanese Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticcolorectalto determineirinotecan
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticssafetyjapaneserelevantclinical trial
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 182 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 408 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Allocation: non randomized (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Aflibercept in Combination With FOLFIRI in Patients With Second-Line Metastatic Colorectal Cancer in Japan NCT01882868 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Study of Aflibercept Plus FOLFIRI (Irinotecan, 5-Fluorouracil, and Leucovorin) in Chinese Patients With Advanced Solid Malignancies NCT01930552 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Study of Aflibercept as Maintenance Therapy Following Induction With Aflibercept in Combination With XELOX, as First-Line Treatment for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patient NCT01955629 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• Aflibercept and FOLFOX6 Treatment for Previously Untreated Stage IV Colorectal Cancer NCT01652196 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• 5-FU, Aflibercept, and Radiation (RT) for Preoperative and Postoperative Patients With Stage II/III Rectal Cancer NCT01749956 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.