A Study of Aflibercept in Combination With FOLFIRI in Patients With Second-Line Metastatic Colorectal Cancer in Japan

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: assessmetastaticpriorchemotherapyprimary
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyclinical trialefficacy andsafety of
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 716 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7893 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 40242 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Intravenous Aflibercept in Combination With FOLFIRI in Japanese Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00921661 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Study of Aflibercept as Maintenance Therapy Following Induction With Aflibercept in Combination With XELOX, as First-Line Treatment for Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patient NCT01955629 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• Study of Aflibercept And Modified FOLFOX6 As First-Line Treatment In Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT00851084 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Safety and Quality of Life Study of Aflibercept in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Previously Treated With an Oxaliplatin-Based Regimen NCT01571284 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• OPTIMOX-aflibercept as First-line Therapy in Patients With Unresectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01802684 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.