Healthy Normal Single Ascending Dose and Crohn's Patient Multiple Ascending Dose

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (176 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingthe patienttherapychronicplacebo controlled
  Phrases that lowered it: healthymaleof ageadultyears of
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Active Treatment Study to Induce Clinical Response and/or Remission With GSK1605786A in Subjects With Crohn's Disease NCT01536418 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Anti-MAP Therapy in Adult Crohn's Disease NCT01951326 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• 9 mg Budesonide Once Daily (OD) Versus 3 mg Budesonide Three Times Daily (TID) in Active Crohn's Disease NCT01086553 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of JNJ-64304500 in Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT02877134 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Study To Evaluate The Efficacy And Safety Of Oral PF-06651600 And PF-06700841 In Subjects With Moderate To Severe Crohn's Disease NCT03395184 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.