Tarceva With Whole Brain Radiation Therapy - Brain Mets From Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationcell lunglung cancernon smallsmall cell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe efficacyclinicalmalecontraceptive
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 24% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 164 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 175 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• WBRT & Erlotinib in Advanced NSCLC and Brain Metastases NCT00554775 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Low Dose Daily Erlotinib in Combination With High Dose Twice Weekly Erlotinib in Patients With EGFR-Mutant Lung Cancer NCT01967095 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study of Tarceva (Erlotinib) in Patients With Locally Advanced, Metastatic or Recurrent Non-Small Cell Cancer Who Present Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutations NCT01372384 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Whole Brain Radiation With or Without Erlotinib for Brain Metastases From Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01518621 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Erlotinib Plus Radiotherapy (RT) for Patients With Advanced or Inoperable Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT00983307 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.