Low Dose Daily Erlotinib in Combination With High Dose Twice Weekly Erlotinib in Patients With EGFR-Mutant Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancerstagebrainegfrcell lung
  Phrases that lowered it: inadequatedailycombinationsafety oftwice
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 56.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 359 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• First Line Treatment in EGFR Mutation Positive Advanced NSCLC Patients With Central Nervous System (CNS) Metastases NCT03653546 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Tarceva With Whole Brain Radiation Therapy - Brain Mets From Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00871923 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Anti-tumor Activity of AZD3759 NCT03360929 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Oral Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors, AZD3759 or AZD9291, in Patients Who Have Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02228369 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• EGFR Inhibition Using Weekly Erlotinib for Recurrent Malignant Gliomas NCT01257594 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.