First Line Treatment in EGFR Mutation Positive Advanced NSCLC Patients With Central Nervous System (CNS) Metastases
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 34% of the time (35 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-07-12, after 2018-10-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-07-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: nsclccell lungsmall cellmetastasesnon small
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andpatientsmalescreening -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 36.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 30694 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 8 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 8 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 30694 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3142 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 75.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 36.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, neurology, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erlotinib, gefitinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Oral Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors, AZD3759 or AZD9291, in Patients Who Have Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02228369 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Anti-tumor Activity of AZD3759 NCT03360929 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- Low Dose Daily Erlotinib in Combination With High Dose Twice Weekly Erlotinib in Patients With EGFR-Mutant Lung Cancer NCT01967095 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Study of Nivolumab (BMS-936558) in Combination With Gemcitabine/Cisplatin, Pemetrexed/Cisplatin, Carboplatin/Paclitaxel, Bevacizumab Maintenance, Erlotinib, Ipilimumab or as Monotherapy in Subjects With Stage IIIB/IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) (CheckMate 012) NCT01454102 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- A Study of Nivolumab + Chemotherapy or Nivolumab + Ipilimumab Versus Chemotherapy in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Participants With Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutation Who Failed 1L or 2L EGFR Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) Therapy NCT02864251 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.