Oral Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors, AZD3759 or AZD9291, in Patients Who Have Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungnsclcnon smallsmall cellsafety tolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacypatientsdiseaseslocalgroup
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 158 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1277 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Anti-tumor Activity of AZD3759 NCT03360929 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• First Line Treatment in EGFR Mutation Positive Advanced NSCLC Patients With Central Nervous System (CNS) Metastases NCT03653546 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Osimertinib (AZD9291) in First-line Locally Advanced or Metastatic NSCLC Patients With EGFR and EGFR T790M NCT02841579 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Phase II AZD9291 Open Label Study in NSCLC After Previous EGFR TKI Therapy in EGFR and T790M Mutation Positive Tumours NCT02094261 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• AZD9291 First Time In Patients Ascending Dose Study NCT01802632 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.