Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Armodafinil as Treatment for Patients With Excessive Sleepiness Associated With Mild or Moderate Closed Traumatic Brain Injury

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientbraininjurydisorderyears of
  Phrases that lowered it: visittabletsmgthe screeningweek
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Armodafinil as Treatment for Patients With Excessive Sleepiness Associated With Mild or Moderate Closed Traumatic Brain Injury NCT00983437 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• Effect of Armodafinil on Simulated Driving NCT02468856 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• A Twelve-week, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Randomized, Parallel-group, Multicenter Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Solriamfetol in the Treatment of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness (EDS) in Patients with Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) NCT06103825 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• National Adaptive Trial for PTSD Related Insomnia NCT03668041 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of NNZ-2566 in Patients With Mild Traumatic Brain Injury (mTBI) NCT02100150 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.