Evaluation of Effect of Doxycycline Verses Placebo on Retinal Function and Diabetic Retinopathy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: monthsthe pastrandomizationsyndromedefined
  Phrases that lowered it: mildstudy eyeto moderate20effect of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of Doxycycline Verses Placebo for the Treatment of Severe Nonproliferative or Mild or Moderate Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy NCT00511875 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study of PER-001 in Participants With Diabetic Retinopathy NCT06003751 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Anti-VEGF Treatment for Prevention of PDR/DME NCT02634333 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Prospective, Randomized, Multicentre, Open-label, Phase II / III Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Ranibizumab 0.5 mg Intravitreal Injections Plus Panretinal Photocoagulation (PRP) Versus PRP in Monotherapy in the Treatment of Subjects With High Risk Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy. NCT01941329 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of RG7774 in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus Type 1 or Type 2 With Treatment-Naive Diabetic Retinopathy NCT04265261 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.