Efficacy and Safety Study of Cinacalcet for the Treatment of Hypercalcemia in Patients With Primary Hyperparathyroidism Unable to Undergo Parathyroidectomy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-12-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: primarymgmmoltypediagnosis
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andsafety ofand safetythe efficacydays before
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 69 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 171 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety, Efficacy, PK and PD of CTAP101 (Calcifediol) ER Capsules for SHPT in HD Patients VDI NCT03602261 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• Treatment of Primary Hyperparathyroidism With Denosumab and Cinacalcet. NCT03027557 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Head-to-Head Study of Etelcalcetide and Cinacalcet in Asian Hemodialysis Patients With Secondary Hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) NCT03299244 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Use of NPSP558 in the Treatment of Hypoparathyroidism NCT00732615 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• PaTHway CHINA TRIAL: A Trial to Investigating the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of TransCon PTH in Adults With Hypoparathyroidism NCT05387070 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.