Treatment of Primary Hyperparathyroidism With Denosumab and Cinacalcet.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapybonetreatedfailurewomen
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate themedicalto evaluateinvestigateproducts
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 66.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 84903 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 29594 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of Cinacalcet for the Treatment of Hypercalcemia in Patients With Primary Hyperparathyroidism Unable to Undergo Parathyroidectomy NCT00975221 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Evaluating Alternative Medical Therapies in Primary Hyperparathyroidism NCT02525796 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Study of Denosumab in the Treatment of Hypercalcemia of Malignancy in Subjects With Elevated Serum Calcium NCT00896454 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Use of NPSP558 in the Treatment of Hypoparathyroidism NCT00732615 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• PTH & Ibandronate Combination Study (PICS) NCT00683163 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.