Evaluating Alternative Medical Therapies in Primary Hyperparathyroidism
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,012 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-10-02, after 2016-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: failureserumdlprimarymyocardial
Phrases that lowered it: agedrangearthritisevaluate45 -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 71 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 219 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 219 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 71 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 16762 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 8960 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 78.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 10.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- amiloride, cinacalcet, eplerenone
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Treatment of Primary Hyperparathyroidism With Denosumab and Cinacalcet. NCT03027557 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Recombinant Human rhPTH(1-34) VS Association Alfacalcidol/Hydrochlorothiazide in Severe Primary Hypoparathyroidism NCT02824718 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of Cinacalcet for the Treatment of Hypercalcemia in Patients With Primary Hyperparathyroidism Unable to Undergo Parathyroidectomy NCT00975221 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Use of NPSP558 in the Treatment of Hypoparathyroidism NCT00732615 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- Treatment of Hypoparathyroidism With Subcutaneous PTH (1-84) Injections: Effects on Muscle Function and Quality of Life NCT00730210 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.