Everolimus in Treating Patients With Previously Treated Unresectable or Metastatic Esophageal Cancer or Stomach Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagecancerlungsmallconcurrent
  Phrases that lowered it: metastaticgastricadenocarcinomaunresectableesophageal
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Everolimus, Carboplatin, and Etoposide in Treating Patients With Small Cell Lung Cancer or Other Advanced Solid Tumors NCT00807755 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Study of Everolimus, Pemetrexed, Carboplatin, and Bevacizumab to Treat Stage IV Lung Cancer NCT01700400 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Phase I Study of Daily RAD001 in Combination With Mitomycin C in Patients With Advanced Gastric Cancer or Cancer of the Esophagogastric Junction NCT01042782 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Everolimus Versus Placebo in Head and Neck Cancer NCT01111058 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Study of the Weekly Oral RAD001 in Combination With Oral Topotecan in Patients With Advanced or Recurrent Endometrial Cancers NCT00703807 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.