Everolimus Versus Placebo in Head and Neck Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsquamouscancersmallheart
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whoversusmalehepaticdrugs
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 119 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 398 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study in Locally Advanced Squamous Cell Carcinoma of Head and Neck NCT01133678 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Everolimus, Carboplatin, and Paclitaxel in Locally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT01333085 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• RAD001 (Everolimus) + Docetaxel + Cisplatin as Induction Chemotherapy in Patients With Local-Regional Advanced Head and Neck Cancer NCT00935961 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Everolimus in Treating Patients With Previously Treated Unresectable or Metastatic Esophageal Cancer or Stomach Cancer NCT00985192 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Study of Everolimus, Pemetrexed, Carboplatin, and Bevacizumab to Treat Stage IV Lung Cancer NCT01700400 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.