Hormone Receptor Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer (HR+ mBC) BIIB021 Plus Aromasin Schedule Finding

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast canceradvancedmetastatictumorher2
  Phrases that lowered it: lesionsfemalelabelopenefficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 56 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 4EVER - Efficacy, Safety, Health Economics, Translational Research of Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01626222 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating Bosutinib-Exemestane Combination Vs Exemestane Alone in Post Menopausal Women With Breast Cancer NCT00793546 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Enzalutamide in Combination With Exemestane in Patients With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02007512 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Everolimus in Combination With Exemestane in the Treatment of Postmenopausal Women With Estrogen Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Are Refractory to Letrozole or Anastrozole NCT00863655 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Study of BMS-754807 Combined With Letrozole or BMS-754807 Alone in Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer and Resistance to Non-Steroidal Aromatase Inhibitors NCT01225172 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.