Study of BMS-754807 Combined With Letrozole or BMS-754807 Alone in Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer and Resistance to Non-Steroidal Aromatase Inhibitors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticbrainadvancedbreast
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluatehormonepositivesteroidalcardiovascular
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 267 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of BMS-690514 in Combination With Letrozole to Treat Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01068704 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Hormone Receptor Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer (HR+ mBC) BIIB021 Plus Aromasin Schedule Finding NCT01004081 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Randomized Phase II Trial of Letrozole With or Without Dasatinib as First and Second-line Treatment for Hormone Receptor-positive, HER2-negative Post-menopausal Breast Cancer That is Unresectable, Locally Recurrent or Metastatic NCT00696072 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Randomized Trial of Fulvestrant With or Without Dasatinib in Men and Postmenopausal Women Who Have Hormone Receptor-positive Advanced Breast Cancer Previously Treated With an Aromatase Inhibitor NCT00754325 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• QUILT-2.015: A Study of AMG 479 With Exemestane or Fulvestrant in Postmenopausal Women With Hormone Receptor Positive Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00626106 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.