Efficacy and Safety of BMS-690514 in Combination With Letrozole to Treat Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 245 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmsmetastaticto determinebrainprior
  Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerher2patients wholetrozolereceptor
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Randomized Phase II Trial of Letrozole With or Without Dasatinib as First and Second-line Treatment for Hormone Receptor-positive, HER2-negative Post-menopausal Breast Cancer That is Unresectable, Locally Recurrent or Metastatic NCT00696072 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Study of BMS-754807 Combined With Letrozole or BMS-754807 Alone in Patients With Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer and Resistance to Non-Steroidal Aromatase Inhibitors NCT01225172 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• Randomized Trial of Fulvestrant With or Without Dasatinib in Men and Postmenopausal Women Who Have Hormone Receptor-positive Advanced Breast Cancer Previously Treated With an Aromatase Inhibitor NCT00754325 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Study of Letrozole With or Without BYL719 or Buparlisib, for the Neoadjuvant Treatment of Postmenopausal Women NCT01923168 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Study of GnRH-A [Leuprorelin(Lorelin Depot] Plus Leterozole +/- Everolimus for Premenopausal Women With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02344550 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.