The Effect of Probiotics (VSL) on Portal Hypertension
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (39 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-06-30, after 2009-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: tumorpatientsgradestagecarcinoma
Phrases that lowered it: productalcoholpressuredrugthe study -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: health services research (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Keywords listed: 6 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- health services research (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 35 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 29 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- VSL#3 and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis NCT01701297 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
- Secondary Prophylaxis of Hepatic Encephalopathy With a Probiotic Preparation NCT01110447 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- Effect of Probiotics in Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and Steatohepatitis NCT04175392 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Test Whether Avenciguat Helps People With Liver Cirrhosis and High Blood Pressure in the Portal Vein (Main Vessel Going to the Liver) Who Had Bleeding in the Esophagus or Fluid Accumulation in the Belly NCT06082843 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy and Safety of Cobiprostone in Patients With Portal Hypertension NCT00737594 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.