ARQ 197 for Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Germ Cell Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: equal togreaterchemotherapytumordl
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectssafetyefficacythe clinicalsingle
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 25 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 73 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab in Subjects With Incurable Platinum-Refractory Germ Cell Tumors NCT02499952 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• SGI-110 Plus Durvalumab/Tremelimumab in SCLC NCT03085849 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of ASP1650, a Monoclonal Antibody Targeting Claudin 6 (CLDN6), in Male Subjects With Incurable Platinum Refractory Germ Cell Tumors NCT03760081 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Study of the Hypomethylating Drug Guadecitabine (SGI-110) Plus Cisplatin in Relapsed Refractory Germ Cell Tumors NCT02429466 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Study of AZD6738 and Olaparib Combination Therapy in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients [SUKSES-N2] NCT03428607 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.