Natalizumab Treatment of Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mrisclerosispurpose ofthe purposemultiple
  Phrases that lowered it: treatmentdiseasestriallimitefficacy
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 35 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Exploratory Study of the Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of Multiple Regimens of Natalizumab in Adult Participants With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (MS) NCT01405820 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study of the Efficacy of Natalizumab on Reducing Disability Progression in Participants With Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01416181 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of Multiple Doses of Natalizumab (BG00002) Administered Subcutaneously to Japanese Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT05265728 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials terminated
• Natalizumab Subcutaneous Immunogenicity and Safety Study NCT02142192 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• Study Evaluating Rebif, Copaxone, and Tysabri for Active Multiple Sclerosis NCT01058005 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.