Randomized Study With Oxaliplatin in 2nd Line Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticprogressionpancreaticgemcitabineoxaliplatin
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whosolidevaluateadvancedmale
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 173 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 496 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Oxaliplatin, Gemcitabine, and Erlotinib Study in Patients With Advanced Chemo-naïve Pancreatic Cancer NCT00636883 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Phase I/II Study of Nab-paclitaxel and Gemcitabine Followed by AG-mFOLFOX in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT02504333 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Modified FOLFIRINOX for Gemcitabine Refractory Pancreatic Cancer: A Phase II Multicenter Trial NCT02440958 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Study of Modified FOLFIRINOX in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT01523457 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• BrUOG 295: Adjuvant FOLFOX-A For Resected Pancreatic Cancer: A Phase II Brown University Oncology Research Group Trial NCT02022033 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.