To Evaluate Effects of AZD1446, Placebo and Donepezil in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebodiseaselongalzheimerii
  Phrases that lowered it: patients withevaluatepharmacodynamiccrossoversingle
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 375 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 829 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 55 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5732 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 4 Week, Safety and Tolerability Study in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT01039701 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Two-part Multiple Dose Study to Assess the Safety and Effects of AZD3293 in Healthy Elderly and Alzheimer's Patients NCT01795339 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Phase 2a Dose Finding, PK/PD and 12 Month Exploratory Efficacy Study of ANAVEX2-73 in Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT02244541 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study of the Safety and Tolerability of AZD5213 Effect on Sleep for Patients With Alzheimer's/Cognitive Impairment NCT01548287 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• A Single Dose Study to Assess the Safety, Effects, and Blood and Urine Drug Levels of AZD3293 in Healthy Subjects NCT01739647 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.