Improve the Treatment of Thoracic Esophageal Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: factorial (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercellsquamouscarcinomakidney
  Phrases that lowered it: compareesophagealrangeaccordingclinical
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Versus Surgery Alone for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT02395705 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
• Induction Chemotherapy Followed by Chemoradiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer NCT02403531 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Postoperative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy Versus Radiotherapy Alone for Patients With Locoregionally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03600831 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Preoperative Chemotherapy vs. Chemoradiation in Esophageal / GEJ Adenocarcinoma NCT01404156 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Chemoradiotherapy With or Without Enteral Nutrition for Locally Advanced Thoracic Esophageal Carcinoma NCT02399306 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.