Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Versus Surgery Alone for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (37 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: adjuvantcancerstagepaclitaxelchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferaseevaluateeffect ofallergicthe effect
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 44186 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: government (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Improve the Treatment of Thoracic Esophageal Cancer NCT01137123 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• A Comparison of Paclitaxel-based Three Regimens Concurrent With Radiotherapy for Patients With Local Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT02459457 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Induction Chemotherapy Followed by Chemoradiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer NCT02403531 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Postoperative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy Versus Radiotherapy Alone for Patients With Locoregionally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03600831 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Study of Comparing Paclitaxel Plus 5-Fluorouracil Versus Cisplatin Plus 5-Fluorouracil in Chemoradiotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Carcinoma NCT01591135 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.