A Phase III Study of Comparing Paclitaxel Plus 5-Fluorouracil Versus Cisplatin Plus 5-Fluorouracil in Chemoradiotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellulnsquamouschemotherapypaclitaxel
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasesclinicalesophagealpatientsconsent form
• Collaborators: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7712 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 39370 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Comparison of Paclitaxel-based Three Regimens Concurrent With Radiotherapy for Patients With Local Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT02459457 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of TPF Induction Chemotherapy for Borderline-resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT02976909 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Postoperative Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy Versus Radiotherapy Alone for Patients With Locoregionally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03600831 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Erbitux Combined With Chemo-radiotherapy in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT00815308 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Versus Surgery Alone for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT02395705 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.