Fulvestrant With or Without Bortezomib in Patients With Inoperable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Estrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (376 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustpatientcellreceivinginterval
  Phrases that lowered it: trialgrowthhormonepreviouslyendocrine
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 393 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 222 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: government (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Study Comparing The Efficacy Of Venetoclax + Fulvestrant Vs. Fulvestrant In Women With Estrogen Receptor-Positive, Her2-Negative Locally Advanced Or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Experienced Disease Recurrence Or Progression During Or After CDK4/6 Inhibitor Therapy NCT03584009 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• HR+/HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer and Endocrine Resistance NCT03322215 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Sapanisertib in Combination With Fulvestrant in Women With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer After Aromatase Inhibitor Therapy NCT02756364 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• S1222 Trial (Everolimus, Anastrozole and Fulvestrant) in Post-Menopausal Stage IV Breast Cancer NCT02137837 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Palbociclib in Combination With Fulvestrant or Tamoxifen as Treatment for Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02384239 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.