A Phase II Study Comparing The Efficacy Of Venetoclax + Fulvestrant Vs. Fulvestrant In Women With Estrogen Receptor-Positive, Her2-Negative Locally Advanced Or Metastatic Breast Cancer Who Experienced Disease Recurrence Or Progression During Or After CDK4/6 Inhibitor Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-05-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticbowellocally advancedcarcinomacancer
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantwomenthe efficacydrug
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 133 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1033 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Efficacy of Ribociclib After Progression on CDK4/6 Inhibition in Patients With HR+ HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer NCT02632045 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Fulvestrant With or Without Bortezomib in Patients With Inoperable Locally Advanced or Metastatic Estrogen Receptor Positive Breast Cancer NCT01142401 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation and Expansion Study of GSK525762 in Combination With Fulvestrant in Participants With Hormone Receptor-positive (HR+)/Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Negative (HER2-) Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02964507 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Lasofoxifene Combined With Abemaciclib in Advanced or Metastatic ER+/HER2- Breast Cancer With an ESR1 Mutation NCT04432454 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Study of Palbociclib in Combination With Fulvestrant or Tamoxifen as Treatment for Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02384239 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.