Efficacy and Safety Study of Abatacept Subcutaneous Plus Methotrexate in Inducing Remission in Adults With Very Early Rheumatoid Arthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningkeycontrolledpurpose ofmonths of
  Phrases that lowered it: jointsmallpatientscombinationefficacy and
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 61.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 267 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9431 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Effects of Abatacept in Patients With Early Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT02504268 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Tregalizumab in Subjects (MTX-IR) With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01999192 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• Methotrexate-Inadequate Response Study NCT00559585 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Golimumab Phase 3b, Multicenter, Assessment of Intravenous Efficacy in Rheumatoid Arthritis Subjects Who Have Diminished Disease Control Despite Treatment With Infliximab (REMICADE®) NCT01962974 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials terminated
• Study to Determine the Effects of Different Doses of Methotrexate (MTX) When Taken With Adalimumab in Subjects With Early Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT01185301 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.