Bortezomib, Total Marrow Irradiation, Fludarabine Phosphate, and Melphalan in Treating Patients Undergoing Donor Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplant For High-Risk Stage I or II Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celldonorcellstransplantrisk
  Phrases that lowered it: healthy20patientsmyelomabortezomib
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 37 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• High Dose Busulfan and Bortezomib in Treating Patients With High Risk Multiple Myeloma Undergoing Stem Cell Transplant NCT01534143 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Autologous or Syngeneic Stem Cell Transplant Followed by Donor Stem Cell Transplant and Bortezomib in Treating Patients With Newly Diagnosed High-Risk, Relapsed, or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT00793572 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Nonmyeloablative Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplant Followed by Bortezomib in High-risk Multiple Myeloma Patients NCT02308280 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Busulfan, Melphalan, Fludarabine and T-Cell Depleted Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Followed by Post Transplantation Donor Lymphocyte Infusions NCT01131169 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Total Marrow Irradiation With High Dose Melphalan Prior to Autologous Transplant for Multiple Myeloma NCT02043860 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.