A Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Nexagon® as a Topical Treatment for Subjects With Venous Leg Ulcers

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject issubjects withto determinethe subjectiv
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofand safetyefficacy andulcerthe efficacy
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial to Assess the Safety and Activity of Nexagon® for the Treatment of Venous Leg Ulcers (The NOVEL Study) NCT00820196 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Aspirin for Venous Ulcers: Randomised Trial (AVURT) NCT02333123 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
• Dose Finding Study of HP802-247 in Venous Leg Ulcers NCT00852995 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• The ASCEND Study: A Study to Investigate the Safety and Clinical Effect of Nexagon to Treat Slow Healing Diabetic Foot Ulcers NCT00820703 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
• Dose-response Relationship Study of S42909 on Leg Ulcer Healing NCT03077165 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.