Aspirin for Venous Ulcers: Randomised Trial (AVURT)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (446 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2016-11-11, after 2015-07-10 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientspatientcombination within combinationundergoing
Phrases that lowered it: participantspressureindexclinicalexamination -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 225843 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 43605 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 8 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 26 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 23.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 7 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 225843 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 43605 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 73.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aspirin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Low Dose Aspirin for Venous Leg Ulcers NCT02158806 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- Dose-response Relationship Study of S42909 on Leg Ulcer Healing NCT03077165 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Dose Finding Study of HP802-247 in Venous Leg Ulcers NCT00852995 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Nexagon® as a Topical Treatment for Subjects With Venous Leg Ulcers NCT01199588 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
- A Trial to Assess the Safety and Activity of Nexagon® for the Treatment of Venous Leg Ulcers (The NOVEL Study) NCT00820196 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.